Conditions Analysis and Numerical Tracking for Opening Readiness Estimates

CANTORE

A statistical model for predicting the first lift-served skiing of the 2026–27 season—complete with uncertainty, corrections, and no pretending that weather is obedient.

Latest approved model record · corrected August 27, 2026

West: Arapahoe Basin

Sunday, October 18

34/100
confidence

The date forecast was unchanged in the August correction. The correction fixed the East output and raised the probability that the West opens first to 87.7%.

West location share

Arapahoe Basin44%

Loveland25%

Wolf Creek25%

Keystone6%

Corrected East call

Killington

Sunday, November 1

Killington 65% · Sunday River 29%

±7-day windowOct 25 – Nov 852%

±10-day windowOct 22 – Nov 1168%

How it works

Base rate

Twenty-six hand-verified seasons establish the historical first-opening dates.

Signal test

Climate signals earn weight only when out-of-sample testing shows that they improve the forecast.

Verification

The published tables are checked against fresh model output so corrections stay visible.

The honest caveat

The current model covers the West and East candidate sets. Midwest rope-tow openings remain a known scope gap, and the 34/100 confidence score is deliberately conservative. CANTORE is a forecast, not an operating-hours claim.

Read the full model story ↗